Commodity bubble is a serious problem, but there is more serious issue in my mind. I think I have an answer today.
Working in financial industry, we can see the world changed around 1995. In US, consumer debt started to increase. In Japanese equity, "value factor" began to work suddenly.
Do you remember what was happend around 1995? Yes, Windows95 was on sale and the internet started to be in public.
The prevailing of the internet improved the efficiency of information exchange, but it also stimulated "gambling preference"of people.
As a result of the widespread of the internet, money has moved quickly over the world, it has made people easy to borrow money, it has made day-trading easier and the world has became "gambling parlor". I think that human beings have a tendency to be attracted to good and delicious things, so more easier people can get information, the more they go to urban, fun and gorgeous place.
I belive that the widespread of the internet brings this terrible gambling world and current commodity price issue which is the end of the story.
I am talking about the internet, because I would like to talk about the end of commodity bubble story. I expect that the end of commodity bubble comes when the growth of commodity comsumption of China, the largest consumer, decreases dramatically, maybe by violence or disruption of Communist Party or something else. Today, I think of one event which triger economy disruption.
Yes, it is when Chinese government shuts down the domestic internet network. The government need to shut down the internet to control information when inflation is up and many violences occur. The government may be happy, but it causes magnificant impacts on business, security market and economy.
As a result, China stops using commodity and price tumbles down. I just hope that the disruption of Chinese economy does not go outside nor cause the war.